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        The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemics in the final phase of the current outbreak in China

        Registration in:
        1201-9712
        https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.018
        http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12010/11188
        https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.018
        http://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/3503815
        Author
        Tang, Biao
        Xia, Fan
        Tang, Sanyi
        Bragazz, Nicola Luigi
        Li, Qian
        Sun, Xiaodan
        Liang, Juhua
        Xiao, Yanni
        Wu, Jianhong
        Institutions
        • Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano (Colombia)
        Abstract
        Objectives: Since January 23rd 2020, stringent measures for controlling the novel coronavirus epidemics have been gradually enforced and strengthened in mainland China. The detection and diagnosis have been improved as well. However, the daily reported cases staying in a high level make the epidemics trend prediction difficult. Methods: Since the traditional SEIR model does not evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies, a novel model in line with the current epidemics process and control measures was proposed, utilizing multisource datasets including cumulative number of reported, death, quarantined and suspected cases. Results: Results show that the trend of the epidemics mainly depends on quarantined and suspected cases. The predicted cumulative numbers of quarantined and suspected cases nearly reached static states and their inflection points have already been achieved, with the epidemics peak coming soon. The estimated effective reproduction numbers using model-free and model-based methods are decreasing, as well as new infections, while new reported cases are increasing. Most infected cases have been quarantined or put in suspected class, which has been ignored in existing models. Conclusions: The uncertainty analyses reveal that the epidemics is still uncertain and it is important to continue enhancing the quarantine and isolation strategy and improving the detection rate in mainland China.
        Subjects
        Coronavirus
        Multi-source data
        Mathematical model
        SEIR model

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        Red de Repositorios Latinoamericanos
        + of 4.000.000
        Available publications
        163 Participating institutions
        Dirección de Servicios de Información y Bibliotecas (SISIB)
        Universidad de Chile
        Membership Login
        Featured collections
        • Latin American Theses
        • Argentinean Theses
        • Chilean Theses
        • Peruvian Theses
        Latest collections added
        • Argentina
        • Brazil
        • Colombia
        • México
        Dirección de Servicios de Información y Bibliotecas (SISIB)
        Universidad de Chile
        Red de Repositorios Latinoamericanos | 2006-2018