Spatiotemporal pattern of COVID-19 and government response in South Korea (as of May 31, 2020)
Autor
Kim, Sun
Castro, Marcia C.
Institución
Resumen
Objectives
The aim of this study is to assess how COVID-19 clustered across districts in South Korea and to
assess whether the pattern and duration of clusters changed following the country’s containment
strategy.
Methods
We conducted spatiotemporal analysis of COVID-19 daily confirmed cases by 250 districts in
South Korea from January 20 to May 31, 2020, obtained from the Korea Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention and each provincial website. Global Moran’s I statistic was used for
spatial autocorrelation analysis and retrospective space-time scan statistic was used to analyze
spatiotemporal clusters of COVID-19.
Results
The geographical distribution showed strong spatial autocorrelation, with a global Moran’s I
coefficient of 0.784 (p=0.0001). Twelve statistically significant spatiotemporal clusters were
identified by space-time scan statistic using a discrete Poisson model. The spatial pattern of
clusters changed and the duration of clusters became shorter over time.
Conclusions
Results indicate that South Korea’s containment strategy of COVID-19 was highly effective in
both early detection and mitigation, with recent clusters being small in size and duration. Lessons
from South Korea should spark a discussion on epidemic response.