The sensitivity and specificity analyses of ambient temperature and population size on the transmission rate of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in different provinces of Iran

Abstract

On 10 April 2020, Iran reported 68,192 COVID-19 cumulative cases including 4232 death and 35,465 recovery cases. Numerous factors could influence the transmission rate and survival of coronavirus. On this basis and according to the latest epidemiological researches, both ambient temperature (AT) and population size (PS) can be considered as significant transmissibility factors for coronavirus. The analysis of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) allows measuring the performance of a classification model using the confusion matrix. This study intends to investigate the sensitivity of AT and PS on the transmission rate of the novel coronavirus in different provinces of Iran. For this purpose, the information of each province of Iran including the annual average of AT and the number of healthy and diseased cases are categorized. Subsequently, the sensitivity and specificity analyses of both AT and PS factors are performed. The obtained results confirm that AT and PS have low sensibility and high sensitivity, respectively. Thus, there is no scientific reason to confirm that the number of COVID-19 cases in warmer climates is less than that of moderate or cold climates. Therefore, it is recommended that the cities/provinces with a population of over 1.7 million people have stricter inspections and more precise controls as their management policy