Effect of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic and optimism bias in stock market forecasts

dc.creatorPeña, Victor Alberto
dc.creatorGómez-Mejía, Alina
dc.date.accessioned2021-02-26T19:21:59Z
dc.date.available2021-02-26T19:21:59Z
dc.date.created2021-02-26T19:21:59Z
dc.date.issued2019-07
dc.identifierVictor-Alberto, P., & Gómez Mejía, A. (2019). Effect of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic and optimism bias in stock market forecasts. Revista de Finanzas y Política Económica, 11(2), 383-405.
dc.identifier2248-6046
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10983/25609
dc.description.abstractStock market forecasting is an important and challenging process that influences investment decisions. This paper presents an experimental design that aims to measure the influence of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic and optimism bias in these forecasts. The study was conducted using information from the S&P MILA Pacific Alliance Select financial index; this was presented to 670 students from the cities of Concepción (Chile), Cali (Colombia), and Lima (Peru). Data was collected and presented through an instrument that asked participants to make a forecast judgment of the said financial index, based on the presented graphics, representing a year, a month, a week, and the last closing value of the index. Thus, it was possible to measure the influence of the anchor and adjustment heuristic in order to establish whether the presence of an initial value affected the financial forecast. Similarly, the study sought to determine whether the judgment issued was biased toward an optimistic or pessimistic position, thereby proving the presence of an error or expectation bias, known as optimism bias. The results were analyzed using the least squares method, and the data panel confirmed that the anchoring and adjustment heuristic influences the forecast of the financial index used in the study. Similarly, the presence of optimism bias in the cognitive process of forecasting in finance was inferred.
dc.description.abstractResumen: La previsión del mercado de valores es un proceso importante y desafiante que influye en las decisiones de inversión. Este artículo presenta un diseño experimental que tiene como objetivo medir la influencia de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores. El estudio se realizó utilizando información del índice financiero S&P MILA Pacific Alliance Select. Este fue presentado a 670 estudiantes de las ciudades de Concepción (Chile), Cali (Colombia) y Lima (Perú). Los datos fueron recopilados y presentados a través de un instrumento que pedía a los participantes que hicieran un juicio de pronóstico del dicho índice financiero con base en los gráficos presentados, representando un año, un mes, una semana y el último valor de cierre del índice. De esta manera, era posible medir la influencia de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste para establecer si la presencia de un valor inicial afectaba el pronóstico financiero. Además, el estudio buscó determinar si el juicio emitido estaba sesgado hacia una posición optimista o pesimista, demostrando así la presencia de un error o sesgo de expectativa, conocido como sesgo de optimismo. Los resultados se analizaron usando el método de mínimos cuadrados, y el panel de datos confirmó que la heurística de anclaje y ajuste influye en el pronóstico del índice financiero utilizado en el estudio. Del mismo modo, se infirió la presencia de sesgo de optimismo en el proceso cognitivo del pronóstico financiero.
dc.description.abstractResumo: A previsão do mercado de valores é um processo importante e desafiador que influencia nas decisões de investimento. Este artigo apresenta um desenho experimental que tem como objetivo medir a influência da heurística da ancoragem e do ajustamento, bem como o viés de otimismo nas previsões do mercado de valores. Este estudo foi realizado com base na informação do índice financeiro S&P MILA Pacific Alliance Select, o qual foi apresentado a 670 estudantes de Concepción (Chile), Cali (Colômbia) e Lima (Peru). Os dados foram reunidos e apresentados por meio de um instrumento que pedia aos participantes que emitissem um parecer de previsão desse índice financeiro a partir dos gráficos apresentados, que representavam um ano, um mês, uma semana e o último valor do fechamento do índice. Desse modo, era possível medir a influência da heurística da ancoragem e do ajustamento para estabelecer se a presença de um valor inicial afetava a previsão financeira. Além disso, o estudo pretendeu determinar se o parecer emitido continha um viés otimista ou pessimista, o que demonstrou a presença de um erro ou viés de expectativa, conhecido como “viés de otimismo”. Os resultados foram analisados com o método de mínimos quadrados, e o painel de dados confirmou que a heurística da ancoragem e do ajustamento influencia na previsão do índice financeiro utilizado no estudo. Assim, inferiu-se a presença de viés de otimismo no processo cognitivo da previsão financeira.
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherUniversidad Católica de Colombia. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas
dc.publisherBogotá
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dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rightsAtribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
dc.rightsCopyright, Universidad Católica de Colombia, 2019
dc.titleEffect of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic and optimism bias in stock market forecasts
dc.typeArtículo de revista


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