Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones

dc.creatorCarrasco, Carlos Alberto
dc.creatorTovar-García, Edgar Demetrio
dc.date.accessioned2021-02-25T19:29:35Z
dc.date.available2021-02-25T19:29:35Z
dc.date.created2021-02-25T19:29:35Z
dc.date.issued2019-07
dc.identifierCarrasco, C. A., & Tovar-García, E. D. (2019). Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones. Revista de Finanzas y Política Económica, 11(2), 255-272.
dc.identifier2248-6046
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10983/25602
dc.description.abstractEn este artículo se utilizan modelos dinámicos con datos de panel para estudiar los determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México con 39 socios comerciales en el periodo 1990-2016. La literatura señala al ingreso y al tipo de cambio real como las variables independientes clave. Asimismo, se incluye la composición de las exportaciones como variable explicativa (algo ignorado previamente). Los resultados difieren de otras investigaciones: no se encuentra evidencia robusta sobre el efecto del ingreso, hay evidencia de la importancia del tipo de cambio real y se encuentra un nexo positivo, aunque débil, con las exportaciones consistentes de bienes de alta tecnología, lo cual explica parcialmente el persistente déficit comercial de México.
dc.description.abstractUsing dynamic panel data models, this paper studies the determinants of Mexico’s bilateral trade balance with 39 trade partners from 1990 to 2016. The literature points to income and real exchange rate as key independentvariables. This study includes export composition as an explanatory variable (a previously neglected aspect). Results differ from other researches: there is no robust evidence on the effect of income; there is evidence of the association between bilateral balance and real exchange rate; and there is a weak positive link with exports consisting of high-tech goods, partially explaining Mexico’s persistent trade deficit.
dc.description.abstractNeste artigo, são utilizados modelos dinâmicos de dados em painel a fim de estudar os determinantes da balança comercial bilateral mexicana com 39 parceiros comerciais de 1990 a 2016. A literatura indica que a renda e a taxa de câmbio real são as principais variáveis independentes. Aqui, a composição da exportação é incluída como variável explicativa, o que não era considerado antes. Os resultados diferem de outras pesquisas: não há evidências sólidas sobre o efeito da renda; há evidências da importância da taxa de câmbio real e verifica-se uma associação positiva, embora fraca, com as exportações de bens de alta tecnologia, o que explica parcialmente o persistente déficit comercial do México.
dc.languagespa
dc.publisherUniversidad Católica de Colombia. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas
dc.publisherBogotá
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dc.rightsAtribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
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dc.titleDeterminantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones
dc.typeArtículo de revista


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