Uso da dinâmica de sistemas no processo de S & OP

Abstract

Despite the process of S&OP (Sales and Operations Planning) is not a new practice in enterprises, especially those of large size, it still deficiency studies in their practices and computational tools support. This happens because it is a complex process where the majority of the representatives managerial of organizational functions participating in the execution, with each trying to contribute to define a coordinated plan of actions for a period of short, medium and long term. Computational models and tools focused to aid the process of S & OP are used and can contribute to improving the quality of its implementation and results. The most common tools are those based on spreadsheets, whose content is generated through the expertise of the decision makers, and more sophisticated techniques are based on techniques of the operational research inserted in Advanced Planning Systems (APS), whose analytical models seek to generate optimized plans. From the literature review on the computational techniques used to aid the S&OP process, was identified the lack of studies related to the use of System Dynamics. Additionally, the review indicates the need for studies related to the integration of economic and financial analysis during the preparation of aggregates plans and the use of probabilistic variables in the process enabling the statistical analysis in order to provide plans more realistic. Another relevant issue observed is that managers involved in the process S&OP does not always have a global vision of all variables and constraints involved in this process, so it is also observed that the techniques and tools used to implement the S&OP process does not provide a holistic view of activities and variables involved. Thus, the aim of this work is to develop a simulation model of System Dynamics which provides a holistic vision for the S&OP process, allowing the integration of finance processes and the use of probabilistic variables. The research method used was based on a qualitative and quantitative approach procedure with modeling / simulation. Thus, the aim of the research is to develop a simulation model of System Dynamics to assist the S & OP process. The research method used was based on a qualitative and quantitative approach with modeling / simulation procedure. The simulation model based on the methodology of system dynamics for the S & OP process was developed and analyzed in illustrative cases, performed in two companies with feature make to stock (MTS). Simulations of illustrative cases were conducted by a design of experiment (DOE) to select and evaluate a set of scenarios, determining the best scenario and checking the adequacy with practice of companies. A evaluation of the use and results of simulations in both cases shows that the system dynamics model improves the understanding of the managements on all activities involved in the S&OP process, as well provides a holistic view of all areas involved. The simulations provides compatible plans compared with business practice, with the advantage of dealing with economic and financial analysis simultaneously and allow the generation of numerous scenarios of S&OP plans.