An alert on the recent fall of the fiscal reaction in Brazil

dc.contributorEscolas::EPGE
dc.contributorFGV
dc.creatorCampos, Eduardo Lima
dc.creatorCysne, Rubens Penha
dc.date.accessioned2018-09-06T12:55:40Z
dc.date.accessioned2019-05-22T14:36:32Z
dc.date.available2018-09-06T12:55:40Z
dc.date.available2019-05-22T14:36:32Z
dc.date.created2018-09-06T12:55:40Z
dc.date.issued2018-08
dc.identifier0104-8910
dc.identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10438/24715
dc.identifier.urihttp://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/2696077
dc.description.abstractRecent evaluations of how the Brazilian government’s primary surplus reacts to the evolution of the debt to GDP ratio convey two important (and worrisome) messages: first, the reaction function has been almost steadily decreasing since 2012. Second, it has turned from positive to negative figures as of October of 2017. With effective real interest rates (over the net government debt) higher than prospects of GDP growth, negative figures for the fiscal reaction function mean a non-sustainable debt trajectory. Significant fiscal adjustments will have to be made in the short run.
dc.publishereng
dc.publisherEscola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV
dc.relationEnsaios Econômicos;799
dc.subjectBrazil
dc.subjectPublic debt
dc.subjectFiscal reaction
dc.subjectFiscal sustainability
dc.subjectKalman filter
dc.titleAn alert on the recent fall of the fiscal reaction in Brazil
dc.typeDocumentos de trabajo


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