Artículos de revistas
Assessing the uncertainties of model estimates of primary productivity in the tropical Pacific Ocean
Fecha
2009-02-20Registro en:
Journal of Marine Systems. Amsterdam: Elsevier B.V., v. 76, n. 1-2, p. 113-133, 2009.
0924-7963
10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.05.010
WOS:000263851000009
Autor
Virginia Inst Marine Sci
CALTECH
Duke Univ
Univ Roma Tor Vergata
Univ Paris 06
CNRS
SUNY Stony Brook
Tokyo Univ Informat Sci
Oregon State Univ
Univ E Anglia
Univ Maine
Fisheries & Oceans Canada
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Woods Hole Oceanog Inst
Commiss European Communities
Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab
NASA
Nagasaki Univ
Natl Res Inst Far Seas Fisheries
CUNY Brooklyn Coll
Univ Calif Irvine
NOAA NMFS Narragansett Lab
Plymouth Marine Lab
Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res
NOAA Coastal Serv Ctr
Univ Texas Arlington
Institución
Resumen
Depth-integrated primary productivity (PP) estimates obtained from satellite ocean color-based models (SatPPMs) and those generated from biogeochemical ocean general circulation models (BCGCMs) represent a key resource for biogeochemical and ecological studies at global as well as regional scales. Calibration and validation of these PP models are not straightforward, however, and comparative studies show large differences between model estimates. The goal of this paper is to compare PP estimates obtained from 30 different models (21 SatPPMs and 9 BOGCMs) to a tropical Pacific PP database consisting of similar to 1000 C-14 measurements spanning more than a decade (1983-1996). Primary findings include: skill varied significantly between models, but performance was not a function of model complexity or type (i.e. SatPPM vs. BOGCM); nearly all models underestimated the observed variance of PR specifically yielding too few low PP (< 0.2 g Cm-2 d(-1)) values; more than half of the total root-mean-squared model-data differences associated with the satellite-based PP models might be accounted for by uncertainties in the input variables and/or the PP data; and the tropical Pacific database captures a broad scale shift from low biomassnormalized productivity in the 1980s to higher biomass-normalized productivity in the 1990s, which was not successfully captured by any of the models. This latter result suggests that interdecadal and global changes will be a significant challenge for both SatPPMs and BOGCMs. Finally, average root-mean-squared differences between in situ PP data on the equator at 140 degrees W and PP estimates from the satellite-based productivity models were 58% lower than analogous values computed in a previous PP model comparison 6 years ago. The success of these types of comparison exercises is illustrated by the continual modification and improvement of the participating models and the resulting increase in model skill. (C) 2008 Elsevier BY. All rights reserved.