Elementos metodológicos para la valoración del riesgo de desastres convergentes en centros urbanos

Abstract

Advances in the analysis and assessment of the risk of natural hazards in urban environments have made significant progress in the last decade, supported mostly in the implementation of new information technologies and quantitative data analysis. However, most of the advances in this field of knowledge have followed a trajectory of high specialization that provide great knowledge about the object of interest but at the cost of a comprehensive view of the complex dynamics that arise between natural phenomena and human activity . The research problem is based on the distortion generated by the lack of a holistic vision of risk, ie the reductionist and fragmented assessment, generates a vicious circle, which prevents adequate territorial ordering, contributing to the increase of disasters in urban centers . The partial vision of specialization is very important for the specific diagnosis of the valuations of specific risks; however, for territorial planning, a single vision reduces the ability to make sound technical decisions; for this reason, this research seeks to propose methodological elements that in turn can be the basis for the structuring of a system for the holistic assessment of the risk of convergent disasters generated by natural hazards, allowing urbanists to have a holistic vision, with respect to medium- and long-term urban planning. In accordance with the above, this research is based on the hypothesis: "The fragmented and dispersed approach of the current risk assessment methodologies for natural hazards in urban environments can be overcome through a system that allows the holistic assessment of convergent risks, contributing with an efficient response for the management of the same and the decision making in the territorial ordering of urban areas ". The structure of proposed methodological elements for the holistic assessment of convergent risk in this work is presented as a conceptual basis for the structuring of a holistic assessment system, to be taken into account in future advances in the systematization and treatment of geospatial data and development of the risk metrics in terms of (threat, vulnerability and exposure), as well as in the conceptual frameworks for land use planning and risk management; by proposing the different elements to be incorporated for that purpose.