BEHAVIOR OF THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET (1995-2008) AS DESCRIBED BY A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL

BEHAVIOR OF THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET (1995-2008) AS DESCRIBED BY A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL

dc.contributorBanco Central de Venezuela. Caracas, Venezuelapt-BR
dc.contributoren-US
dc.creatorLópez-Domínguez, María de la Fe
dc.creatorLevy-Carciente, Sary
dc.creatorContreras, José
dc.creatorPaiva-Mata, Pedro César
dc.date2011-12-22
dc.date.accessioned2018-11-07T19:14:00Z
dc.date.available2018-11-07T19:14:00Z
dc.identifierhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/18272
dc.identifier10.22456/2176-5456.18272
dc.identifier.urihttp://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/2176594
dc.descriptionEnergy largely determines the characteristics of the global economy, hence the importance of fully understanding the behavior of the oil market in its current geo-economic and political environment. Starting from the basic relations of the global oil market and their interactions with macroeconomic variables, a nonlinear dynamic, structural and systemic model for this market is developed, which simulates the price, production and consumption of oil, and the accumulation of inventories. Model tests show satisfactory performance in the simulation of the known past in a medium-term horizon, 1995-2008. A sensitivity study performed for the same period yield some interesting conclusions about the behavior of the global oil market, such as the irrelevance of the structural factors in the soaring rise in oil prices in 2008.pt-BR
dc.descriptionEnergy largely determines the characteristics of the global economy, hence the importance of fully understanding the behavior of the oil market in its current geo-economic and political environment. Starting from the basic relations of the global oil market and their interactions with macroeconomic variables, a nonlinear dynamic, structural and systemic model for this market is developed, which simulates the price, production and consumption of oil, and the accumulation of inventories. Model tests show satisfactory performance in the simulation of the known past in a medium-term horizon, 1995-2008. Asensitivity study performed for the same period yield some interesting conclusions about the behavior of the global oil market, such as the irrelevance of the structural factors in the soaring rise in oil prices in 2008. en-US
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.languagepor
dc.publisherUFRGSpt-BR
dc.relationhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/18272/14669
dc.sourceAnálise Econômica; v. 29, n. 56 (2011): setembro de 2011en-US
dc.sourceAnálise Econômica; v. 29, n. 56 (2011): setembro de 2011pt-BR
dc.source2176-5456
dc.source0102-9924
dc.subjectCiencias Sociales, Economíapt-BR
dc.subjectOil market; Simulation model; System dynamicspt-BR
dc.subjectC63; C67; Q47pt-BR
dc.subjecten-US
dc.subjectOil market. Simulation model. System dynamics.en-US
dc.subjectC63; C67; Q47en-US
dc.titleBEHAVIOR OF THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET (1995-2008) AS DESCRIBED BY A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELpt-BR
dc.titleBEHAVIOR OF THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET (1995-2008) AS DESCRIBED BY A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELen-US
dc.typeArtículos de revistas
dc.typeArtículos de revistas


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