UM ESTUDO EMPÍRICO DOS CICLOS POLÍTICO-ECONÔMICOS NO BRASIL
UM ESTUDO EMPÍRICO DOS CICLOS POLÍTICO-ECONÔMICOS NO BRASIL
| dc.creator | Preussler, Athos Prates da Silveira | |
| dc.creator | Portugal, Marcelo Savino | |
| dc.date | 2009-10-09 | |
| dc.identifier | https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/10740 | |
| dc.description | The political business cycle theory suggests that economic fluctuations can be explained by the electoral calendar. Knowing that economic performance has great influence in the electorate vote decision, the incumbent may try to manipulate the economy policy in order to maximize the chances of victory of the government candidate. Empirical studies that aimed to test this hypothesis have found evidence of political opportunism as much on macroeconomic variables as on the political economy instruments. The present paper has the objective to test the hypothesis of political opportunism on macroeconomic variables, on fiscal policy instruments and interest rates in Brazil between 1980 and 2000. The econometric tests we will use autoregressive integrated moved average models (ARIMA) with intercept dummy variables in the months that precede the elections. The results confirm the hypothesis of political opportunism in the inflation rate and in the total expenditure of the federal government. | en-US |
| dc.description | The political business cycle theory suggests that economic fluctuations can be explained by the electoral calendar. Knowing that economic performance has great influence in the electorate vote decision, the incumbent may try to manipulate the economy policy in order to maximize the chances of victory of the government candidate. Empirical studies that aimed to test this hypothesis have found evidence of political opportunism as much on macroeconomic variables as on the political economy instruments. The present paper has the objective to test the hypothesis of political opportunism on macroeconomic variables, on fiscal policy instruments and interest rates in Brazil between 1980 and 2000. The econometric tests we will use autoregressive integrated moved average models (ARIMA) with intercept dummy variables in the months that precede the elections. The results confirm the hypothesis of political opportunism in the inflation rate and in the total expenditure of the federal government. | pt-BR |
| dc.format | application/pdf | |
| dc.language | por | |
| dc.publisher | UFRGS | pt-BR |
| dc.relation | https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/10740/6354 | |
| dc.rights | Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômica | pt-BR |
| dc.source | Análise Econômica; Vol. 21 No. 40 (2003): setembro de 2003 | en-US |
| dc.source | Análise Econômica; v. 21 n. 40 (2003): setembro de 2003 | pt-BR |
| dc.source | 2176-5456 | |
| dc.source | 0102-9924 | |
| dc.subject | Political business cycle. Political economy. Economic policy. | pt-BR |
| dc.subject | JEL Classification | pt-BR |
| dc.subject | E60 | pt-BR |
| dc.subject | Political business cycle. Political economy. Economic policy. | en-US |
| dc.subject | JEL Classification | en-US |
| dc.subject | E60 | en-US |
| dc.title | UM ESTUDO EMPÍRICO DOS CICLOS POLÍTICO-ECONÔMICOS NO BRASIL | en-US |
| dc.title | UM ESTUDO EMPÍRICO DOS CICLOS POLÍTICO-ECONÔMICOS NO BRASIL | pt-BR |
| dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/article | |
| dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |