Precipitation over two Southern Hemisphere locations: Long-term variation linked to natural and anthropogenic forcings

Abstract

The precipitation over Tucuman (26.8°S, 65.2°W), Argentina, and Sidney (33.8°S, 151.2°E), Australia, present similar long-term variation patterns. In this work anthropogenic and solar forcings are analyzed as possible drivers of this behavior. Due to the nature of the processes that lead to precipitation, the discernment between solar and anthropogenic effects, and the link between precipitation and solar activity are highly complex and hard to detect. The aim of this work is to convey the importance of recognizing and quantifying the different forcing acting on precipitation which sometimes are not exposed by a statistical analysis. Annual mean precipitation time series together with solar and geomagnetic activity indices and atmospheric CO2 are analyzed. In order to survey the role of different forcing on precipitation variation we used wavelet and regression analysis with CO2, Rz and aa as independent variables acting as anthropogenic, solar and geomagnetic activity forcing respectively. In the long-term, all of them, considered separately, would induce a similar mean increase in precipitation. The increasing concentration of greenhouse gases, which is thought to be the main factor causing the global warming, is expected to induce an increasing trend of ∼0.8 mm/year, according to some authors. In our case, we obtain a much smaller value: ∼0.15 mm/year which in addition, is similar to the expected forcing from Rz or aa. The wavelet analysis yield significant results for the quasi-decadal and longer-term variations only in the case of Sydney. Significant correlations at time-scales longer than 22 years are also obtained through the regression analysis for Sydney. Although Tucuman do not present significant results, there is a clear similar behavior in the long-term trend. In spite of the fact that the present analysis do not allow us to determine the "true" forcing of the overall increasing trend observed in precipitation, it points out not only anthropogenic but natural mechanisms as possible origins of the precipitation variations.