Self-organized criticality and the predictability of human behavior

Abstract

The behavior of normal individuals and psychiatric patients vary in a similar way following power laws. The presence of identical patterns of behavioral variation occurring in individuals with different levels of activity is suggestive of self-similarity phenomena. Based on these findings, we propose that the human behavior in social context can constitute a system exhibiting self-organized criticality (SOC). The introduction of SOC concept in psychological theories can help to approach the question of behavior predictability by taking into consideration their intrinsic stochastic character. Also, the ceteris paribus generalizations characteristic of psychological laws can be seen as a consequence of individual level description of a more complex collective phenomena. Although limited, this study suggests that, if an adequate level of description is adopted, the complexity of human behavior can be more easily approached and their individual and social components can be more realistically modeled. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.