Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)In semi-arid climates, plant population dynamics are strongly influenced by the amount and temporal distribution of rainfall. We monitored a population of the tree species Cordia oncocalyx (Boraginaceae) for 24months in the dry thorny woodland of semi-arid northeastern Brazil, to investigate which life-history traits allow this tree to be locally dominant. We used horizontal life tables and a Lefkovitch matrix and tested for relationships among demographic parameters of seedling, infant, juvenile, immature, virginile and reproductive ontogenetic stages with rainfall and canopy openness. Germination and recruitment occurred in the rainy months, and dry-season mortality occurred only in seedlings (76% and 100%, first and second years, respectively) and infants (3% and 6%). Juveniles showed greater height growth under more open canopies (Spearman correlation coefficient=0.24), suggesting that light availability influences growth. The population growth rate was =1.0336, and the highest sensitivity occurred in the infant-juvenile transition. Our results show light as a restrictive growth factor for plants in the juvenile stage and confirm the strong influence of rainfall on the dynamics of trees in a seasonally dry environment. The formation of a persistent seed bank with germination concentrated at the rainfall onset but spreading over the rainy season are strategies that hedge bets before establishment. The formation of a bank of infants, which can resume growth as soon as there is water, hedges bets after establishment. We attribute the positive population growth rate of Cordia oncocalyx to survival strategies allowing bet-hedging both before and after establishment.423329340Research Foundation of Ceara (FUNCAP) [093.01.00/09]Brazilian Research Council (CNPq) [308853/2010-5, 304051/2007-1]State University of Ceara (UECE)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)