Technology substitution and innovation adoption: The cases of imaging and mobile communication markets

dc.creatorMiranda, LCM
dc.creatorLima, CAS
dc.date2013
dc.dateJUL
dc.date2014-08-01T18:25:54Z
dc.date2015-11-26T17:05:01Z
dc.date2014-08-01T18:25:54Z
dc.date2015-11-26T17:05:01Z
dc.date.accessioned2018-03-28T23:53:22Z
dc.date.available2018-03-28T23:53:22Z
dc.identifierTechnological Forecasting And Social Change. Elsevier Science Inc, v. 80, n. 6, n. 1179, n. 1193, 2013.
dc.identifier0040-1625
dc.identifierWOS:000321089400013
dc.identifier10.1016/j.techfore.2012.11.003
dc.identifierhttp://www.repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/78781
dc.identifierhttp://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/78781
dc.identifier.urihttp://repositorioslatinoamericanos.uchile.cl/handle/2250/1279478
dc.descriptionTechnology substitution and innovation adoption are considered within the framework of evolutionary economy. The evolution hierarchical concepts of change, order, direction, progress and perfectibility are invoked to describe technological substitutions as processes that point towards the direction the economic system moves into, its rate of change giving the speed of change. Knowledge evolution and its appropriation into technological innovation are key ingredients in enhancing competition among technologies struggling towards capturing the other's market shares. We accordingly mathematically translate these evolutionary views into practice using Lotka-Volterra prey-predator model for competition and single logistic growth for the market evolution of the competing innovation. Using this formulation we studied the technological substitution of analog by digital imaging process and demonstrate how the later has disruptively displaced the former. Considering its vital importance to managing market strategies towards innovation products adoption, we redefine the takeoff time with a more realistic accounting of the innovation product adoption by consumers that is easily computed from its launching phase sales data. Our takeoff time is found to occur earlier than the one usually adopted. The new formulation is successfully tested against the consolidated innovation adoption of two economically impacting technological innovations: digital cameras and mobile phones. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
dc.description80
dc.description6
dc.description1179
dc.description1193
dc.languageen
dc.publisherElsevier Science Inc
dc.publisherNew York
dc.publisherEUA
dc.relationTechnological Forecasting And Social Change
dc.relationTechnol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.
dc.rightsfechado
dc.rightshttp://www.elsevier.com/about/open-access/open-access-policies/article-posting-policy
dc.sourceWeb of Science
dc.subjectTechnological substitution
dc.subjectInnovation adoption
dc.subjectDigital imaging
dc.subjectDigital cameras
dc.subjectMobile phones
dc.subjectEvolutionary economy
dc.subjectTakeoff time
dc.subjectLotka-Volterra modeling
dc.subjectLogistic modeling
dc.subjectConsumer Durables
dc.subjectTechnical Change
dc.subjectEconomics
dc.subjectDynamics
dc.subjectTakeoff
dc.subjectModel
dc.subjectProducts
dc.subjectVolterra
dc.titleTechnology substitution and innovation adoption: The cases of imaging and mobile communication markets
dc.typeArtículos de revistas


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