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Nonparametric tail risk, macroeconomics and stock returns: predictability and risk premia
(2015-02-12)
This paper proposes a new novel to calculate tail risks incorporating risk-neutral information without dependence on options data. Proceeding via a non parametric approach we derive a stochastic discount factor that correctly ...
Nonparametric tail risk, stock returns, and the macroeconomy
(Cirano, 2016)
This paper introduces a new tail-risk measure based on the risk-neutral excess expected shortfall of a cross-section of stock returns. We propose a novel way to risk neutralize the returns without relying on option price ...
An SDF Approach to Hedge Funds' Tail Risk:Evidence from Brazilian Funds
(Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria, 2017)
An SDF approach to hedge funds’ tail risk: evidence from Brazilian funds
(2016-03-21)
The main purpose of this paper is to propose a methodology to obtain a hedge fund tail risk measure. Our measure builds on the methodologies proposed by Almeida and Garcia (2015) and Almeida, Ardison, Garcia, and Vicente ...
An SDF approach to hedge funds' tail risk: evidence from Brazilian funds
(Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria, 2017-05-25)
The main purpose of this paper is to propose a methodology to obtain a hedge fund tail risk measure. Our measure builds on the methodologies proposed by \citet*{ag15} and \citet*{aagvg15}, which rely in solving dual ...
Rejoinder on: nonparametric tail risk, stock returns, and the macroeconomy
(Oxford University Press, 2017)
The discussions focus on different aspects of the paper and are quite complementary. Dobrev and Schaumburg look closely at our implementation choices and analyse the sensitivity of the measure to these choices. Camponovo, ...
Financial market structures revealed by pricing rules: Efficient complete markets are prevalent
(Academic Press Inc., 2018)
It is well known that when an arbitrage-free financial market is incomplete or has tradable financial assets with frictions there must be multiple risk-neutral probability measures. The main motivation for the present study ...
The Forecast Ability of Option-implied Densities from Emerging Markets Currencies
(Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria, 2016)
Transformações da probabilidade de default: do mundo neutro a risco para o mundo real
(2015-08-24)
Este trabalho aborda os fundamentos da relação entre a medida neutra a risco e o mundo físico, apresentando algumas metodologias conhecidas de transformação da medida de probabilidade associada a cada um destes dois ...