Modelling forecast uncertainty is a difficult task in any forecasting problem. In weather forecasting a possible solution is the use of forecast ensembles, which are obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction ...

The development and evaluation of ensemble hindcasting and forecasting systems (EHS and EFS, respectively) for storm surges in the Río de la Plata Estuary (RdP) is presented. The models were forced by atmospheric sea level ...

On behalf of the decision-makers of Andean regulated river basins a drought index was developed to predict the occurrence and extent of drought events. Two stochastic models, the Markov Chain First Order (MCFO) and the ...

Link prediction in a network is mostly based on information about the neighborhood topology of the nodes. Recently, the interest for hybrid link prediction approaches that combine topology information with information about ...

In this work, three models are built to produce intra-day probabilistic solar forecasts with lead times ranging from 10 min to 3 h with a granularity of 10 min. The first model makes only use of past ground measurements. ...

Recently, prediction of new links between two individuals in social networks has gained a lot of attention. However, to fully understand and predict how the network evolves through time, ending relationships also need to ...