Modelling forecast uncertainty is a difficult task in any forecasting problem. In weather forecasting a possible solution is the use of forecast ensembles, which are obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction ...

The plans for producing long‐term (6–24 hour) forecasts of equatorial plasma structure and radio scintillation for the Communication and Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) program are described. We discuss the ...

This work aims to compare the forecast efficiency of different types of methodologies applied to Brazilian Consumer inflation (IPCA). We will compare forecasting models using disaggregated and aggregated data over twelve ...

In this study we examine different methodologies to estimate earnings. More specifically, we evaluate the viability of Genetic Programming as both a forecasting model estimator and a forecastcombining methodology. When ...

Dynamical models are now widely used to provide forecasts of above or below average seasonal mean temperatures and precipitation, with growing interest in their ability to forecast climate extremes on a seasonal time scale. ...

Our paper aims to evaluate two novel methods on selecting the best forecasting model or its combination based on a Machine Learning approach. The methods are based on the selection of the ”best” model, or combination of ...

In this paper, we analyze the importance of curvature term structure movements on forecasts of interest rates. An extension of the exponential three-factor Diebold and Li (2006) model is proposed, where a fourth factor ...