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Estimation of COVID-19 dynamics “on a back-of-envelope”: Does the simplest SIR model provide quantitative parameters and predictions?
Basing on existence of the mathematically sequential reduction of the three-compartmental (SusceptibleInfected-Recovered/Removed) model to the Verhulst (logistic) equation with the parameters determined
by the basic ...
Lessons from being challenged by COVID-19
We present results of different approaches to model the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in Argentina,
with a special focus on the megacity conformed by the city of Buenos Aires and its metropolitan area,
including a ...
Modelling population dynamics based on experimental trials with genetically modified (RIDL) mosquitoes
(Elsevier Science, 2020-05)
Recently, the RIDL-SIT technology has been field-tested for control of Aedes aegypti. The technique consists of releasing genetically modified mosquitoes carrying a “lethal gene”. In 2016 the World Health Organization (WHO) ...
The first 100 days: modeling the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic
A simple analytical model for modeling the evolution of the 2020 COVID-19
pandemic is presented. The model is based on the numerical solution of the
widely used Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) populations model for ...
A fuzzy cellular automata for SIR compartmental models
(2013-12-01)
We propose a representation of the dynamics of epidemics through a compartmental SIR (Susceptible - Infected - Recovered) model, with the combined use of geo-referenced cellular automata and fuzzy systems. In this model, ...
The SEIRS-NIMFA compartmental epidemic model for the analysis of IoT malware propagation
(Universidad de los AndesIngeniería de Sistemas y ComputaciónFacultad de IngenieríaDepartamento de Ingeniería Sistemas y Computación, 2023-07-07)
With IoT networks' rapid advancement and significant cybersecurity challenges, the proposal and analysis of models capable of studying malware propagation within these structures have become highly relevant. This paper ...
Percolation across households in mechanistic models of non-pharmaceutical interventions in SARS-CoV-2 disease dynamics
(2022-06-01)
Since the emergence of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), mathematical modelling has become an important tool for planning strategies to combat the pandemic by supporting decision-making and public policies, ...
Forecasting COVID-19 pandemic: A data-driven analysis
In this paper, a new Susceptible-Exposed-Symptomatic Infectious-Asymptomatic Infectious-QuarantinedHospitalized-Recovered-Dead (SEIDIUQHRD) deterministic compartmental model has been proposed and
calibrated for interpreting ...
Transmission dynamics of dengue in Costa Rica: the role of hospitalizations
(Centro de Investigaciones en Matemática Pura y Aplicada (CIMPA) y Escuela de Matemática, San José, Costa Rica., 2020)