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Estimation of R(0) from the initial phase of an outbreak of a vector-borne infection
(WILEY-BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, INC, 2010)
The magnitude of the basic reproduction ratio R(0) of an epidemic can be estimated in several ways, namely, from the final size of the epidemic, from the average age at first infection, or from the initial growth phase of ...
Estimando o fator básico de reprodução da COVID-19
(2020-12)
Este trabalho objetiva estimar o fator básico de reprodução (R0) da COVID-19 em municípios brasileiros com mais de 500 mil habitantes, usando dados da fase exponencial da COVID-19 em cada cidade. Para isso, o trabalho ...
Global dynamics of a differential-difference system: A case of Kermack-McKendrick SIR model with age-structured protection phase
(2020-01-01)
In this paper, we are concerned with an epidemic model of susceptible, infected and recovered (SIR) population dynamic by considering an age-structured phase of protection with limited duration, for instance due to vaccination ...
Parameter estimates of the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak in Costa Rica: An Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach
(2019-03-28)
In Costa Rica, the first known cases of Zika were reported in 2016. We looked at the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak and explored the transmission dynamics using weekly reported data. A nonlinear differential equation single-outbreak ...
The role of intra and inter-hospital patient transfer in the dissemination of heathcare-associated multidrug-resistant pathogens
(2019-03-01)
Healthcare-associated infections cause significant patient morbidity and mortality, and contribute to growing healthcare costs, whose effects may be felt most strongly in developing countries. Active surveillance systems, ...
Assessing the effects of temperature on dengue transmission
(Cambridge Univ PressNew YorkEUA, 2009)
Understanding epidemics from mathematical models: Details of the 2010 dengue epidemic in Bello (Antioquia, Colombia)
(Elsevier Inc., 2017-03-01)
Dengue is the most threatening vector-borne viral disease in Colombia. At the moment, there is no treatment or vaccine available for its control or prevention; therefore, the main measure is to exert control over mosquito ...
Disease transmission dynamics according to complexity theory
(Universidad Nacional de Colombia, 2013-01-01)
Objective: Illustrating disease transmission as a complex system according to complexity theory. Methods: A SIR mathematical model (S=number susceptible, I=number infectious, and R=number recovered or immune) reflecting ...
Age-structured modeling of COVID-19 epidemic in the USA, UAE and Algeria
As the COVID-19 is still spreading in more than 180 countries, according to WHO.
There is a need to understand the dynamics of this infection and predict its the impact on the public
health capacity. This work aims to ...
The basic reproduction number R0 and effectiveness of reactive interventions during dengue epidemics: the 2002 dengue outbreak in Easter Island, Chile.
(American Institute of Mathematical Sciences, 2013)
We use a stochastic simulation model to explore the effect of reactive intervention strategies during the 2002 dengue outbreak in the small population of Easter Island, Chile. We quantified the effect of interventions on ...