Comércio varejista brasileiro: uma análise dos determinantes macroeconômicos das vendas
Pauli, Liciani Beatriz
The importance of the retail trade is evidenced by its role in generation of revenues, in the supply of jobs and in the fulfillment of the household consumption demands, being a sector of great relevance for the Brazilian economic growth. Brazil’ retail has recently experienced a strong slowdown, stopped growing in 2014 and presented a strong contrain in 2015 and 2016. According to Santos and Costa (1997), the volume of retail sales responds relatively quickly to changes in the macroeconomic environment. This work seeks to contribute by verifying the existence, in the long term and in the short term, of relationships between Brazilian retail sales and the factors of the economic conjuncture, considering the period from January 2010 to December 2017. The variables used in this study were available wage mass, personal credit, selic interest rate, interest rate of credit operations, consumer confidence index and level of indebtedness and default consumer. The monthly data were obtained from IPEA, BCB and the National Confederation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism. Tests traditional unit root and for structural break processes have shown that interest rates are stationary at the level, while the other variables are integrated in the first order. Cointegration tests of Johansen and Saikkonen and Lütkepohl indicated the presence of at least one cointegration vector in each specified model, proving the existence of a long-term relationship between the series of models. From this, a vector error correction model (VECM) is estimated and the relationships in the short and long term are analyzed. In general, the results show that the macroeconomic variables impact on retail sales with different intensities and directions. It was found that retail sales are positively influenced by the increase in consumer incomes, represented by the increased wage mass available, and credit granted to the individual, so that the increase of 1% of the available wage mass and credit to the individual tends to increase, on average, retail sales by 0.87% and 0.27%, respectively. It was found that the restricted retail is positively influenced by interest rates and the expanded retail is negatively influenced by interest rates. That is, increases of one percentage point in the interest rate on consumer credit operations and in the economy's interest rate tend to cause, on average, positive percentage changes in the restricted retail sales of 10.26% and negative percentage changes in 20% in expanded retail sales. It has been found that restricted retail is positively influenced consumer confidence index, so that the 1% increase in the index results, on average, increase of 0.26% of retail sales restricted. In relation to the expanded retail, the variable was not statistically significant. In addition, it has been found that the expanded retail trade is positively influenced by the increase in consumer indebtedness and negatively impacted by consumer delinquency, so that increases of 1% in consumers' debt levels and delinquencies tend respectively to increase increased retail sales by 0.45% and decreased sales by 0.76%. In most of the results, the responses of the variable of retail sales, from a shock of the macroeconomic variables, extended until the fifth period. The results of the variance decomposition of the sales forecast errors in the expanded retail point to the high explanatory power of the expanded retail variable itself. While in restricted retail, the results demonstrate a greater participation in the explanation of the variable interest rates, level of consumer delinquency, besides the own sales in the restricted retail.