Tesis
Uma análise do comportamento e dos efeitos da carga tributária na economia brasileira no período de 1980 a 2012
Fecha
2014-05-26Registro en:
DINIZ FILHO, José Washington de Freitas. An analysis of tax burden effects behavior in brazilian
economy in the period between 1980 and 2012. 2014. 66 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Administração) - Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, 2014.
Autor
Diniz Filho, José Washington de Freitas
Institución
Resumen
Since the tax burden has been mensured at the first time in Brazil, in 1947, it has been
showing an upward trend behavior, excepted in 1963/64 and 1985, when it has presented a
decline in its tendence. In this sense, this study has as it objective discuss the tax burden
behavior and verify its effects on aggegated macroeconomic variables. To do so, a recent
period with an expressive growth between 1980 and 2012 has been considered. In order to
achieve the objective, an Autoregressive Vector (VAC) has been used in order to verify the
main macroeconomic aggregated factors behavior after changes uccured in the tax burden.
Complementary, a precedence relation between economic variables by Granger causality has
been analysed. The application of econometric method, has emphazised that with the
exception of the exchange rate, whicch has shown a decreasing behavior after the shock in
taxation, the other economic aggregates have shown negative changes in their tendency, also
in the period after the tax burden, which have stabilized, in general, after four periods,
suggesting that changes in taxation provoke long term effects. So, it can be concluded that
expansive effects in tax burden tend to limitate economic growth by longlasting effects caused
in economic activity, and also the behavior in real aggregate, however, this effects do not
occur in an isolate way, leading an elevated level of dependence and interlinking, including
nominal variables, which are many times used as an instrument to achieve economic and
political objectives.