Análise dos ciclos de investimento no Brasil (1996-2019)

Abstract

This work aims to study the Brazilian business cycle, providing efforts to explain particularly the variation in the investment level and how it impacts the national economy. This analysis focused on the gross fixed capital formation series between the years 1996 and 2019, provided by the IBGE agency. As this data has also government and household investments, the chosen model will show cycles in the whole national economy. Because of the short period of time, this model will use several trends in order to model the long cycles. Besides that, the least square method was used to find the parameter of several models, because it was verified at least 64 model with different number of trends and sine and cosine functions with four statistic tests. Based on the theory given and after identified the cycles, guidelines were provided to explain the variation found in the investiment level and how it could spread in the whole economy.