Modelo financiero de regresión lineal, una propuesta para el diagnostico y sostenibilidad de las empresas del sector construcción en Colombia

Abstract

The fundamental purpose of this research work was to investigate the main causes of bankruptcies of small companies of the construction sector in Colombia from a financial point of view, and developed a linear regression model that, through the financial statements, provides the main criteria for an adequate analysis of the capital invested in these companies. To do this, the database of the Superintendency of Companies was used , where most companies in Colombia report their financial statements annually, where we compiled and group by sectors the statement of financial situation, the income statement and the cash flow statement. A practical tool was developed in Microsoft Excel for the business community in the Colombian construction sector, which allows optimal analysis of the resources invested in companies, measuring their current performance with the theoretical performance obtained by the linear regression and in turn with the average of the main financial accounts of the sector. Broadly speaking, the linear regression model adequately fit the data of the 937 companies, making the result of the regression coefficients and the intercept very helpful in measuring the efficiency of the calculated real invested capital, and comparing it with the model prediction.