Análisis empírico del efecto de la inflación en el consumo real : el caso colombiano (1955 - 2019)

Abstract

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of a nominal variable (in this case, inflation) on a real variable (real consumption) in the period from 1955 to 2019 in Colombia, based on the classical idea of money neutrality. To achieve this, a review of the ideas from the main schools of thought was conducted, supplemented with an in-depth analysis of the existing literature on current studies of the effects of inflation on consumption. Some of the studies discussed in this work are those by Hurtado (2006), Moreira (2016), Contreras et al. (2019), Zúñiga et al. (2020), and Álvarez Fernández (2022). Additionally, correlation relationships between consumption, inflation, and Gross Domestic Product were evaluated using statistical techniques. Lastly, an analysis of impulse response graphs was conducted, which were obtained through three VAR models developed specifically for this study and explained within the methodological design section, in order to demonstrate money neutrality or non-neutrality in the long term for Colombia.