Future land use conflicts: Comparing spatial scenarios for urban-regional planning

Abstract

Latin America's intensive urbanization processes are triggering rapid peri-urban transformations and the expansion of cities. These include accelerated metropolization processes, urban sprawl, and the emergence of new conurbations. These changes parallel the expansion of highly profitable agricultural activities and plantations linked to international markets. This paper aims to analyze land use/cover changes between 1990 and 2050 in the Quillota Province, Valparaiso Region, Chile. Specific objectives considered (1) analyzing changes in land use/cover trajectories between 1990 and 2017, (2) simulating changes in land use/cover based on three scenarios of territorial planning to 2050 (trending, ecological planning, and spatial planning), and (3), identifying the areas most likely to be modified by urbanization and agricultural activity as a result of biodiversity loss in the study area. The Dyna-CLUE model implemented was complemented with GIS techniques for the analysis of land use/cover trajectories that allowed classifying and characterizing the most dynamic land uses/cover within the Quillota Province, such as urban land uses. The results of simulations to 2050 show a probable conurbation of medium-sized cities of Quillota-La Cruz-Calera, and future land use conflicts between peri urban-agricultural land use and plantation-natural conservation land use. The results suggest that it is essential to choose scenarios to ensure sustainable land use planning to control urban and peri-urban sprawl and protect areas of high natural value.