Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso de Graduação
A dívida pública brasileira: uma análise via função de reação fiscal (2003-2022)
Fecha
2023Autor
Pereira, Bruno Rodrigues
Institución
Resumen
This work aims to estimate the fiscal reaction function of the consolidated public
sector in Brazil in the period 2003-2022, seeking to configure the responses to short-
and long-term stimuli. Methodologically, the model was developed in the form of an
Error Correction Vector (VECM) as proposed by Bohn (1998; 2007), the specification
was constituted by the variables: Public Sector Borrowing Need (NFSP) and Public
Sector Net Debt (DLSP) consolidated (both in proportion to accumulated GDP). Two
control variables were also used, namely the output gap and the accumulated
inflation in 12 months. The results suggest an unsustainable path for the Brazilian
public debt, stimulated by the increase in the NFSP and constant changes in the
macroeconomic environment. The results also suggest evidence of a counter-cyclical
fiscal policy and that the debt served as a price control mechanism.