Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso de Graduação
Quais os efeitos das mudanças climáticas sobre a abundância do marsupial Marmosops Incanus?
Fecha
2022-08-22Autor
Metzger, Ana Lúcia
Institución
Resumen
Climate change is one of the biggest issues of the 21st century, threatening ecological
balance and affecting all levels of the biodiversity. Climate change can affect
precipitation and temperature, altering biome distributions and changing species
abundances. Marsupials are susceptible to changes in their habitats and many
species are dependent on forested areas. Marmosops incanus is an endemic
marsupial species of the Atlantic Forest and it is a good model for predictive
modeling studies to assess the effects of climate change on species abundance. The
goal of this study was to assess how climate change may affect the potential
abundance of Marmosops incanus in the Atlantic Forest. Data on its relative
abundance were obtained from a published database and literature review. Models
for climate change scenario projections are from the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report for the 2061-2080 period. Our results
suggest that M. incanus may lose most of the areas where it is abundant currently.
Areas suitable to potential gain in abundance are located mostly in the south of the
Minas Gerais state and the areas of potential loss in abundance are located in the
Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo states, areas where M. incanus is locally
abundant. Areas suitable to potential gain in abundance may pose a challenge to
species survival, since the Atlantic Forest is currently a mosaic with few large areas,
especially in the southern and southeastern Brazil. However, areas in Minas Gerais
are the least suitable for M. incanus potential gain in abundance, since the Atlantic
Forest in this state has only 7% of its original cover. A positive factor for M. incanus
may be that the areas for potential gain in abundance are geographically close to
areas where the species is currently abundant. This proximity may facilitate its
adaptation and dispersal to these new areas, since it can disperse to these areas
more easily than to distant areas. Thus, this study can contribute to conservation
efforts and help management efforts to prevent the potential effects of climate
change on this marsupial species.