Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso de Graduação
Como o mercado de ações reage ao medo: uma análise para países da América Latina de 2020 a 2022.
Fecha
2023Autor
Moraes, Natasha Goulart Pereira
Institución
Resumen
The present study aimed to empirically analyze the emerging vulnerability of the
Brazilian stock market in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using COVID-19 deaths
as a case study, a time series model was employed to investigate the impact of these
deaths on the volatility of the main stock market indices in Latin America. The central
purpose of the research was to examine whether the emotions of fear and uncertainty
triggered by COVID-19-related deaths had an adverse effect on the performance of the
primary index of the stock markets in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and Mexico. To achieve
these objectives, statistical tools such as the run-test and the GARCH model were
employed. The results of the run-test indicated randomness in the fluctuations of the
indices in Chile and Mexico. However, it was found that COVID-19 mortality had a
causal impact on the volatility of the main Brazilian and Argentine indices. These
findings reinforce the understanding that psychological factors such as fear and
uncertainty can influence investors' perception of risk.