COVID-19 trend analysis in mexican states and cities

Abstract

This paper presents a trend analysis of the COVID-19 pandemics in Mexico. The studies were run in a subnational basis because they are more useful that way, providing important information about the pandemic to local authorities. Unlike classic approaches in the literature, the trend analysis presented here is not based on the variations in the number of infections along time, but rather on the predicted value of the final number of infections, which is updated every day employing new data. Results for four states and four cities, selected among the most populated in Mexico, are presented. The model was able to suitably fit the local data for the selected regions under evaluation. Moreover, the trend analysis enabled one to assess the accuracy of the forecasts.