Impacto da Incorporação da Lei 14.182/2021 nos Resultados do PDE 2031

Abstract

The Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan - PDE is developed annually by the Energy Research Office - EPE, with the support and monitoring of the Ministry of Mines and Energy - MME and other entities in the sector. Its main objective is to indicate the perspectives of future expansion of the energy sector from the perspective of the Federal Government in the horizon of ten years. PDE 2031 presents the result of the free scenario in which the indicative expansion of generation is not linked to the need to comply with legal requirements and energy policy guidelines established by the MME. The reference scenario considers these policies, which incorporated the changes brought by law 14.182/2021. This law provides for the privatization of Eletrobras and several legislative changes, which were incorporated into the reference scenario. In this paper, a comparison between the PDE 2030 and the PDE 2031 is presented. The indicative expansion of electricity generation of the reference scenario is evaluated, highlighting the changes brought by the law. The planner's challenge in dealing with such uncertainties is highlighted.