O risco fiscal associado às parcerias público-privadas (PPP): estudo de caso da rodovia MG-050

Abstract

This study aims to analyze, from the case study of the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Highway MG-050, the fiscal risk taken by the Government in the implementation of Public-Private Partnerships. In the case of MG-050, we elect the risk of variation in the traffic volume on the highway as the key variable to analyze the potential impact of the implementation of this Partnership on public accounts, which we call here the fiscal risk. We use the historical records of the traffic volume on the highway from 2008 to 2015 to feed the resampling process, via the statistical method bootstrap, in order to allow us check the oscillating trend of the traffic volume compared to the one expected. It appears that the variation trend is small, not imposing financial burden on the Government. We conclude, therefore, that the projection of road traffic volume for PPP highway MG-050 seems to be adequate, mitigating potential fiscal risks associated with this contract.