Planejamento de capacidade em geração de energia fotovoltaica usando Redes de Petri Estocásticas

Abstract

Capacity planning mechanisms are fundamental for the alternative generation of electric energy. In particular in the generation of solar energy, using photovoltaic panels, this interest is quite evident. Without them, the entire infrastructure needs to be built and tested so that only the real potential of generation can be dimensioned. In addition to being financially costly, this approach also consumes deployment time and is inflexible for the reconfiguration and testing of different production scenarios. This work proposes amodel in Petri nets that captures the variability of generation and serves the planning of capacity in the generation of photovoltaic solar energy. It will be shown that, from the calibration of a model to a single generator, it is possible to simulate and estimate the impacts of this on the generation potential as awhole. Fromthis approach, multiple scenarios can be reconfigured, simulated and analyzed in a short time, which tends to be valuable from a predictive planning perspective.