Estudo da inserção da mini e microgeração na projeção de mercado do sistema elétrico de distribuição

Abstract

With the privatization of the companies in the sector in the 1990s by the government, there was an increase in competition in the electric power market, making it necessary to create the National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) to guarantee the maintenance of the efficiency and reliability generation. The current legislation coupled with government incentives to the expansion of alternative sources (GD) has made it economically interesting to operate generators in parallel with the electric distribution systems, thus increasing the interest of private companies in investments in the production of electric energy and with a insertion of this type of generation in the electrical system of the distributor caused both technical and operational changes in the system, besides influencing the behavior of the demand in all classes of consumption, and the projection of this is the basis for the planning of expansion, operation and of an electricity distributor. With the insertion of the mini and microgenerations in the electric distribution system, it has become essential to develop a methodology that contemplates the market projection regarding the insertion of this type of renewable source within the Energy Compensation System that assists decision making when of the power purchase by the Utilities. Using the statistical method of the Multiple Polynomial Regression, we determined the analytical curves of trend for the consumption classes: residential, commercial and industrial, and thus the behavior of the quantity of generating consumers inserted in the electric system with the respective energy was projected generated until the year 2020 and we can also verify that this will be the period, if there is no significant external event, to stabilize this market.