bachelorThesis
Evaluación del método de múltiples hipótesis para la conceptualización de procesos hidrológicos en una cuenca de páramo andino con un modelo de lluvia-escorrentía
Fecha
2020-10-19Autor
Muzha Yunga, Gabriela Paola
Institución
Resumen
Knowledge of precipitation-runoff processes of mountain basins is crucial in terms of water resources
to assure the protection of ecosystem services. In this research, a multiple hypotheses modeling approach
is presented, with the objective of identifying a structure and set of parameters that most closely
approximate the behavior of an Andean Páramo basin. For this, six structures with different complexity
were conceptualized to simulate the hydrological response of the system. Mathematical functions were
used to define the transfer of rain water to discharge passing through “compartments” within the basin.
Model parameters were calibrated with the NSGA-II genetic algorithm. Based on the results, it was
demonstrated that the most complex structure VI (ten parameters), is the best representation of the
system with a high performance in validation (NSE=0.86 and logNSE= 0.78). Structure V with six
parameters was also able to capture the hydrological processes successfully (NSE=0.83 y logNSE=
0.83). The main contribution to water yield for structures (VI and V) during the rainiest season comes
from the lateral water flow, provided by the organic and mineral reservoirs. Although the addition of a
fractured rock reservoir generated improvements in the goodness-of-fit parameters of the model, these
improvements were not major. Finally, through this study, it can be assured that to model Páramo
hydrology, it is necessary to include fast and slow response reservoirs.