Using Time Series Analysis to support the Water Resources Management in the Upper Basin of the Suquía River

Abstract

A time series analysis is a valuable tool to get information about analyzed data structures and their components, which providesa good basis for successful future predictions. This information is useful to make decisions for the best management of thisresource. The region where the province of Cordoba is located is subject to strong variations in their hydrological cycles. Thestrong population growth experienced in the recent years in the city of Cordoba and its area of influence (Area of Greater Córdoba)with more than 1.4000.000 inhabitants has resulted in conflicts in the uses of water. During the last decades this area hasexperienced prolonged droughts and floods. The Suquı́a River is the most important source of water supply to the City of Córdobain Argentina. This study deals with the modeling and forecasting of rainfall time series in the area of upper basin of Suquı́a River.The series analyzed were San Antonio, El Condor, El Cajon and Barrio El Canal Station. The time series models that were proposedfor the analysis of each record were ARMA models. The results show that the time series analysis is a tool that offers valuableinformation on the characteristics pluviographs.