bachelorThesis
Predição da velocidade do vento a curto prazo via modelos matemáticos
Fecha
2017-12-01Registro en:
FERREIRA, Moniki Dara de Melo. Predição da velocidade do vento a curto prazo via modelos matemáticos. 2017. 65f. Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso (Graduação em Meteorologia) - Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas e Climáticas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal - RN, 2017.
Autor
Ferreira, Moniki Dara de Melo
Resumen
This present work aims to predict wind speed hourly averaging from anemometric towers (at a height of 50 meters) located in Belo Jardim/PE and Camocim/CE. For this, the time-series models used are: Holt-Winters (HW), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Hybrid. Observational data were also evaluated by the MERRA-2 reanalysis (state-of-the-art) at the same height of the towers. The results show that the hybrid model presented a better performance in relation to the others, including compared to evaluation with the MERRA-2. For example, in terms of statistical residues, RMSE and MAE were 0.91 and 0.62 m/s, respectively. In this way, hybrid models are a good method of forecasting wind speed data for wind generation.