doctoralThesis
Estudo climatológico e análise da frequência de "dry spell" para o semiárido brasileiro
Fecha
2022-02-18Registro en:
MEDEIROS, Biancca Correia de. Estudo climatológico e análise da frequência de "dry spell" para o semiárido brasileiro. 2022. 114f. Tese (Doutorado em Ciências Climáticas) - Centro de Ciências Exatas e da Terra, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, 2022.
Autor
Medeiros, Biancca Correia de
Resumen
Climatic variations directly influence the economy of a region. This scenario in the Brazilian
semiarid region can be even more impactful, considerably affecting agriculture and water
resources. Thus, the general objective of this study was to analyze possible climate changes
existing for four sub-regions of the Brazilian Semiarid of the meteorological parameters such
as precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature, humidity and insolation during the
period from 1962 to 2019. Daily precipitation data were used, minimum and maximum
temperature, humidity and insolation from the Meteorological Database for Teaching and
Research (BDMEP) of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) of 72 stations located
in the Brazilian semiarid region. Among the statistical methods, the Mann-Kendall test was
used to verify possible trends, increasing or decreasing at a significance level of 5%, the
statistical technique of multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) to perform a spatiotemporal analysis, comparing the means of the parameters between the periods, and two
distributions for count data, the Zero Inflated Poisson - ZIP and the Zero Inflated Negative
Binomial - ZINB to analyze the frequency of "dry spell", and make a comparison in relation to
quality adjustments through two criteria, AIC and BIC. The results of the trend analysis
indicated a decreasing trend for precipitation in all regions during the period 1962-2019. A
trend of increasing maximum temperature was observed for almost all regions, except the R2
region and decreasing of minimum temperature in all regions. The insolation had a different
variation by region, R1 and R4 showed increasing insolation while R2 and R3 decreased. The
results of the multivariate analysis (MANOVA) indicated significant changes (p-value < 0.05)
in all variables. On average, the values of precipitation and humidity between the periods
(1962–1990 and 1991–2019) decreased, while the values of maximum, minimum and insolation
temperatures increased. When comparing the adjustments of the two models, the Zero Inflated
Poisson (ZIP) model had the best fit to the data. The results of this study allow the assessment
of possible climate change on the Brazilian semiarid region between the two analyzed periods,
also contributing to future studies on the vulnerability of this region, as well as the elaboration
of decision-making focused on mitigating the effects of these climate changes. With the
adjustment of the model, it will be possible to predict the occurrence of the dry period for the
Brazilian semi-arid region and thus be able to reduce the impacts of this phenomenon on
agricultural productivity.