Hacia la construcción de un modelo de simulación de la transmisión del dengue en Colombia

Abstract

Dengue fever has been considered a public health problem worldwide. In several Colombian regions, where environmental conditions seem to be favorable enough for disease transmission, incidence has been showing important high values. Simplified versions of the infectious disease mathematical models CIMSiM and DENSiM were proposed to be applied for representing the transmission dynamics of dengue incidence in a specific Colombian locality. This is our first quantitative attempt to explore the possible influence of climatic variables on dengue transmission in endemic urban areas. Climatic records were analyzed to detect possible anomalies and their degree of association with epidemiological time series.