Hybrid choice model for alternative fuelled vehicles [Modelación híbrida para la elección de vehículos con energías alternativas]

Abstract

The promotion of alternative fuelled vehicles for the reduction of atmospheric emissions is a highly discussed topic nowadays. It requires evaluating the potential demand and people's preferences for vehicles using these new technologies, in order to define strategies to encourage their use. Hybrid choice models were used to explicitly incorporate non-observed and latent factors that could affect the next vehicle purchase. Models were estimated using stated preference data collected in two Colombian cities. The latent factors were obtained through the rating of several statements from survey respondents regarding the perception of the transportation systems, the environmental concern and the importance of some vehicle features. Results suggest that the use of hybrid choice models helps to obtain an adequate representation of the consumer behavior when facing the next vehicle purchase. Environmental concern and the support for green transport policies are significant factors in the choice of alternative fuelled vehicles. Capital costs and operational costs differences among conventional fuelled vehicles and alternative fuelled vehicles are also relevant factors in the decision making process.