Modelación hidrológica para el pronóstico de sequías en la cuenca del río Pamplonita bajo escenarios de cambio climático
Fecha
2019-01-30Registro en:
Díaz , P. V. & Suárez, A. M. (2019). Modelación hidrológica para el pronóstico de sequías en la cuenca del río Pamplonita bajo escenarios de cambio climático (Trabajo de pregrado de Ingeniería Ambiental). Universidad Santo Tomás. Bogotá, Colombia.
reponame:Repositorio Institucional Universidad Santo Tomás
instname:Universidad Santo Tomás
Autor
Diaz Gonzalez, Paula Viviana
Suarez Rodriguez, Ana Maria
Institución
Resumen
The main objective of the degree project is to obtain drought indices under climate change scenarios, for which modeling using the Hydro-BID tool was used, the results obtained from a hydrological modeling carried out in the Pamplonita river basin are presented. Colombia; in order to determine the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime of the area, implementing the modeling tool for Latin America and the Caribbean Hydro-BID, where the model was calibrated from flow stations, in addition a regionalization of parameters to model future flows. The variables of precipitation, temperature and flow evaluated for the current conditions and for the scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were integrated. The future climatological series, from 2015 to 2100, were generated by means of the scale reduction methodology based on the statistical method of chaos theory from the data obtained from the global circulation model CCMS4, since this model according to the The evaluation was the one that best fit the study area. Additionally, the percentages of variation of flow of each of the scenarios were obtained with respect to the current conditions, resulting in a possible decrease in the flow between 6.10% and 10.8% for the different scenarios. Finally, the SQI indicator was produced that reflects the duration and severity of the drought for the years 2015 to 2100. And then some measures are proposed to prevent and mitigate the impacts produced by climate change in the basin in terms of hydrological drought.