Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions analysis in Colombia: A LEAP model application
Registro en:
0360-5442
instname:Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
reponame:Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano
Autor
Nieves, J.A.
Aristiz abal, A.J.
Dyner, I.
Báez, O.
Ospina, D.H.
Institución
Resumen
Colombia represents that group of developing countries that is facing new challenges in energy demand
due to climatic phenomena, technological changes and the growing use of renewable energy. This article
presents a joint research work between the Unidad de Planeaci on Minero Energ etica - UPME (In Spanish)
and the University of Bogot a Jorge Tadeo Lozano to analyze the energy demand and greenhouse gas
emissions produced in Colombia. The study was conducted using the Long-Range Energy Alternatives
Planning System (LEAP) software, through the construction of a model based on the year 2015 and with
two future scenarios (positive and negative). The LEAP model is extrapolated until the years 2030 and
2050 to obtain the future predictions of the country's economic sectors: tertiary sector, industrial sector,
housing sector and transport sector. The negative scenario is characterized by low economic growth and
few incentives for technological change, which translates into low growth in energy efficiency, as well as
a low substitution of petroleum-based energy. In contrast, in the positive scenario the economic growth
of the sectors is greater and the technological substitution is accelerated which allows higher efficiency
levels in the final use of energy and a greater migration towards cleaner technologies.