Supporting the natural gas supply chain public policies through simulation methods: a dynamic performance management approach

Abstract

Natural gas is considered the transitional fuel par excellence between fossil and renewable sources, considering its low cost, greater efficiency and lesser impact on the environment. This is the reason why its demand levels have increased worldwide, requiring intervention of public and private stakeholders in order to meet these increments. The participation of diverse interconnected stakeholders (key actors) of the supplier-client form, constitutes a supply chain for natural gas, in which the effects of the application of public policy actions can be analysed in the time, using Dynamic Performance Management DPM methodology. The results of the model show the behaviour of the reserves, production and transport levels compared to scenarios that combine the implementation time of capacity expansion projects and supply reliability percentages, in which the national government can intervene, facilitating decision makers to identify the impact of the actions to be implemented, in the planning of policies aimed at guaranteeing the uninterrupted supply of this resource.