The 2016 plebiscite and the political challenges of consolidating a negotiated peace in Colombia

Abstract

This article analyzes key moments of the peace process between the Colombian government and the FARC during 2016. Colombia and the world were shocked when voters narrowly rejected the peace accords in a national plebiscite. What explains these electoral results? I argue that it is necessary to incorporate structural and political elements into our efforts to understand what happened in October of 2016. I emphasize the importance of sociodemographic patterns at the municipal level and connect these with the dynamics of the political campaign leading up to the vote. In the last section I discuss the political implications of the plebiscite and the challenges that it entails for the implementation of the peace accords. © 2017, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile. All rights reserved.