Effects of uncertainty on scheduling of highway construction projects

Abstract

Time and cost overruns in highway construction are usual in Colombia. Contractors regularly fail in cost estimation and construction scheduling. An analysis of important factors on time and cost overruns in highway construction in southwest Colombia is presented in this paper. Forty highway construction projects were reviewed. Data from construction documents were collected to prepare a data base for probabilistic analysis. Data collected include scheduled construction time and cost, actual construction time and cost, and unexpected events which could have affected the construction process. Data were used in a probabilistic cost and schedule risk analysis to identify critical factors in construction time and cost overruns in the region. It was found that the activities that most affect the time and cost overruns are the construction of the granular base and the asphalt layer. The most common causes of construction overruns were found to be poor cost and duration estimates, rain, and materials supply problems.