Artículos de revistas
The challenges of containing SARS-CoV-2 via test-trace-and-isolate
Fecha
2021Registro en:
Nature Communications (2021) 12:378
10.1038/s41467-020-20699-8
Autor
Contreras, Sebastián
Dehning, Jonás
Loidolt, Matthias
Zierenberg, Johannes
Spitzner, F. Paul
Urrea Quintero, Jorge H.
Mohr, Sebastián B.
Wilczek, Michael
Wibral, Michael
Priesemann, Viola
Institución
Resumen
Without a cure, vaccine, or proven long-term immunity against SARS-CoV-2, test-trace-andisolate
(TTI) strategies present a promising tool to contain its spread. For any TTI strategy,
however, mitigation is challenged by pre- and asymptomatic transmission, TTI-avoiders, and
undetected spreaders, which strongly contribute to ”hidden" infection chains. Here, we study
a semi-analytical model and identify two tipping points between controlled and uncontrolled
spread: (1) the behavior-driven reproduction number RHt
of the hidden chains becomes too
large to be compensated by the TTI capabilities, and (2) the number of new infections
exceeds the tracing capacity. Both trigger a self-accelerating spread. We investigate how
these tipping points depend on challenges like limited cooperation, missing contacts, and
imperfect isolation. Our results suggest that TTI alone is insufficient to contain an otherwise
unhindered spread of SARS-CoV-2, implying that complementary measures like social distancing
and improved hygiene remain necessary.