Comparing the identification of sites with high risk of landslides using isohyets of precipitation vs alterations of rainfall by La Niña in Santander Colombia

Abstract

Extreme meteorological events associated with climate change are a real issue and have important impact over the economy of infrastructure sector, including highways, hydrocarbon transport by pipelines, mines, etc., because saturation of soils by water can produce landslides and it could produce the fracture of pipelines or other kind of tangible assets. For example, an assessment of historical geotechnical failures in Ecopetrol (Colombian Oil Company) vs. extreme meteorological events shows that during La Niña (extreme rainfall period) geotechnical failures are three times greater. This work shows a method to identify places of risk by extreme meteorological events, mainly La Niña phenomenon, with focus in most probably alteration of rainfall. Our results illustrate the hot spots where there is a high probability of slight excess (120–160% of average rainfall) and high excess (>160%) of average rainfall. The results were intersected in a GIS with pipelines and mass movement risk maps to identify the places of high risk along Santander region.