Criação e desvio de comércio no Mercosul: o caso do arroz em casca

Abstract

The Regional Integration Agreements surround the international economy as an alternative to total liberalization of markets. Latin America was not astonished with the resurgence of the post-cold war regionalism. Regarding the imperfect customs union Mercosur, even when in this kind of agreement the goal is a Common External Tariff (CET) that would stimulate the external competitiveness under the aegis of the XXIV article of the GATT/OMC, discrimination still persists. In this case, Brazil, by removing restrictions to commerce for the members of the Block, reduced the CET tariff to 10 %. As an effect of the change in trade politics due to integration, a redirection in Mercosur trade flow took place. With a glance on the Brazilian economy and the rice market, which behavioral pattern would these alterations have, under the optics of the customs unions approach, knowing that Brazil is a loyal rice importer from Argentina and Uruguay now with the benefit of the absence of tariff restriction? According to the Vinerian approach, these effects might be beneficial trade creation or damaging trade diversion for the economical welfare. These effects to Mercosur can be measured with a partial equilibrium model for the cereal in order to find the potential of trade creation and diversion after the change in Brazil s import politics. As a result, we find that the greatest trade potential was created with the tariff reduction in the Block, from 1995 to 1999, as well as the trade creation surpassed the trade diversion to the Block from 1991 to 1994. Regarding the trade creation, Argentina was the more benefited country to the removal of tariffs. Nevertheless, the trade creation has gradually diminished for both members of the Mercosur. As consequence the Brazilian internal production has been more competitive than the imports, even without tariff protection. Regarding trade diversion, its values were minimal, so the damages to third party trade represent somewhat if compared to the potential of trade creation in the Block. Finally, it was clear that the alterations of the rough rice trade tariff allowed a great potential of trade creation and a real impact on the Brazil importation and internal production of rice.