| dc.description.abstract | Climate change resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effect together with the direct
effect of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation growth are expected to
produce changes in the cycling of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. Impacts will vary
across Europe, and regional-scale studies are needed to resolve this variability. In this
study, we used the LPJ-GUESS ecosystem model driven by a suite of regional climate
model (RCM) scenarios from the European Union (EU) project PRUDENCE to estimate
climate impacts on carbon cycling across Europe. We identified similarities and discrepancies
in simulated climate impacts across scenarios, particularly analyzing the
uncertainties arising from the range of climate models and emissions scenarios considered.
Our results suggest that net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic
respiration (Rh) will generally increase throughout Europe, but with considerable
variation between European subregions. The smallest NPP increases, and in some cases
decreases, occurred in the Mediterranean, where many ecosystems switched from sinks
to sources of carbon by 2100, mainly as a result of deteriorating water balance. Over the
period 1991–2100, modeled climate change impacts on the European carbon balance
ranged from a sink of 11.6 GtC to a source of 3.3 Gt C, the average annual sink
corresponding with 1.85% of the current EU anthropogenic emissions. Projected changes
in carbon balance were more dependent on the choice of the general circulation model
(GCM) providing boundary conditions to the RCM than the choice of RCM or the level
of anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions. | |
