Artículos de revistas
Predictibilidad a corto plazo del número de casos de la influenza pandémica AH1N1 basada en modelos determinísticos
Fecha
2010-04Registro en:
Revista chilena de infectología, v.27 n.2 Santiago abr. 2010, pp. 119-125
0716-1018
doi: 10.4067/S0716-10182010000200003
Autor
Canals Lambarri, Mauricio
Institución
Resumen
Influenza AH1N1 severely affected the population of Chile. It has high transmissibility,
which may stress the health system capacity. An adequate prediction of number of
cases and frequency of complications is needed. Chilean and OMS dialy reports of
cases from April to Jun 2009 were analyzed in this study. We developed a simple
methodology for short-term forecast of case number, based on deterministic models.
Predicted and observed values were compared with regression analyses and Bland-
Altman diagrams. We found that the intrinsic rate of increase of the number of cases in
the world and in Chile, after an initial high instability, decreases to stable valúes,
allowing a relatively accurate forecasting the next day and for a serial period. The
estimators obtained are over-estimators, which allow an adequate safety factor for the
estimations. The method is easy to implement in software for routine use and can be
useful in monitoring this epidemic and others in the future.